smisachu
07-31 05:00 PM
smisachu,
here is what i have figured out in last 4 year and i have been to various blogs.
1. i have read various blogs all are saying trading options with all good stuff you can hardly make any money. Most of the term you have used i have some idea what its is , but havent studied it properly.
There is no silver bullet that will make money all the time. If some one says so he is lying. Options can give you a chance to minimize risk but also cap profits. And you can be wiped out in options routinely. However in stocks it is a rare event when your stock goes to zero.
2. trading is gambling- you can have some edge by stastical analysis what have performed well over a long time. so backtest u r system over 10 years.
Trading is most certainly gambling, even fixed income. You can build a model and hedge to reduce risk and make it a calculated gamble but still a gamble..
3. would like to know what kind returns are you targeting with options
Most professional option traders generate income by writing options. Writing options are very risky as you have a theoretical loss probability reaching infinity. Forming synthetic positions will minimize risk but you might bleed hedging the position. A seller of option is long theta and short delta; a buyer of options is short theta and long delta. Think of theta as the time factor and delta as the hedge factor to put simply. If you sell a call option you have to hedge the option by buying delta units of the underlying stock. And when the call is at the money or near you will end up buying the stock high and selling the stock low, thus loosing money. Black and Scholes famously showed that in an option trade you can delta hedge the risk away. This is not possible and their model is flawed. But it is simple and intuitive and every one serious in trading options NEEDS to learn the model. You don�t have to know the derivation but just the model, and the partial differential equation. I can talk about the flaw and the smile and smile dynamics but many of these concepts need to be drawn out and very hard to explain with out drawing.
4. spreads can be an way to go ..but has to be directional bet or else difficult. I have seen lot of iron condor guys breaking down in recent melt down and up.
Any model will work only for certain duration. That is why you need to keep running it and that is why quants have jobs. In stat arb sometimes you run models 3 times or more a day. I mean complicated mathematical models getting data from a provider and running large data sets to find the mean. And then trade when the stock diverges from the mean.
Each strategy or model has shelf life, so you need to keep researching and running new models.
Spreads are a good way of limiting down side while also capping upside. Volatility spreads are the most profitable ones and again short straddle makes money almost 95% of times but the 5% when they loose they will loose big. You need to have a certain limiting conditions and then hedge the spread with in this range. Usually you will make a little or loose a little. Sometimes you will hit a home run. It is easy to show this on a graph
5. so i kind of believe in hit and run and momentum play - what else can make you money where nothing is certain
I don�t trade momentum, swing or technical indicators. But there are profitable traders who do this.
6. buying when rsi2 is depressed and selling quickly - can be spread havent back tested it.
i backtest using stockfetcher. but u cant backtest options, you have to manually do it. itried some using think or swim platform.
Relative strength Index, McClellan RSI(2) and Oscillators can be an indicator of stock movement. Relating it to the option market is abstract but I think possible. But I feel the options will already be priced in for such potential movements in the underlying. A very good quant I know always says any new strategy will first manifest itself in the derivatives market before equity as the players there are much more sophisticated.
I am not sure which retail trading platform has good back testing, try options first with scottrade. I use Bloomberg which has loads of functions like OVME-GO where you can back test , simulate and see the volatility surface.
so i am trying to see if anybody else has any good strategy to share.
There are many good strategies but I have no idea on sophistication of each individual. For example right now you can sell credit default swaps on Goldman sachs medium senior secured notes and hedge it with delta units of binary in-the-money call options on the VIX. This will give you synthetic exposure to the notes with steady cash flow and the binaries are cheap. If goldman defaults the VIX will sky rocket giving you a handsome payout better than what you will have to pay on the senior secured notes because of high recovery rate if all the default climbs up to the senior tranche. Actually this would be equal to the end of the world in today�s market.
Or better yet just buy SPX and sit, the market is doing all the work for you.
The US natural gas market is in contango (I swear this is not jargon:o, there is no other term). So buy long dated/leap calls at the money now. In 2 years you will be so deep in the money you wont know what to do. But average retail investor cannot hedge this as he cannot trade spot.
So I guess my point is there are sophisticated ways to make money for which the average retail investor has no access to. If there is a simple way then it has already been exploited under the no-arbitrage clause of free markets.
If you have 2-5 year horizon. Go long the market and sit on it would be my best advice. If people want to meet and share ideas I am open to it. I live in NJ so NY/NJ is fine spot to meet.
here is what i have figured out in last 4 year and i have been to various blogs.
1. i have read various blogs all are saying trading options with all good stuff you can hardly make any money. Most of the term you have used i have some idea what its is , but havent studied it properly.
There is no silver bullet that will make money all the time. If some one says so he is lying. Options can give you a chance to minimize risk but also cap profits. And you can be wiped out in options routinely. However in stocks it is a rare event when your stock goes to zero.
2. trading is gambling- you can have some edge by stastical analysis what have performed well over a long time. so backtest u r system over 10 years.
Trading is most certainly gambling, even fixed income. You can build a model and hedge to reduce risk and make it a calculated gamble but still a gamble..
3. would like to know what kind returns are you targeting with options
Most professional option traders generate income by writing options. Writing options are very risky as you have a theoretical loss probability reaching infinity. Forming synthetic positions will minimize risk but you might bleed hedging the position. A seller of option is long theta and short delta; a buyer of options is short theta and long delta. Think of theta as the time factor and delta as the hedge factor to put simply. If you sell a call option you have to hedge the option by buying delta units of the underlying stock. And when the call is at the money or near you will end up buying the stock high and selling the stock low, thus loosing money. Black and Scholes famously showed that in an option trade you can delta hedge the risk away. This is not possible and their model is flawed. But it is simple and intuitive and every one serious in trading options NEEDS to learn the model. You don�t have to know the derivation but just the model, and the partial differential equation. I can talk about the flaw and the smile and smile dynamics but many of these concepts need to be drawn out and very hard to explain with out drawing.
4. spreads can be an way to go ..but has to be directional bet or else difficult. I have seen lot of iron condor guys breaking down in recent melt down and up.
Any model will work only for certain duration. That is why you need to keep running it and that is why quants have jobs. In stat arb sometimes you run models 3 times or more a day. I mean complicated mathematical models getting data from a provider and running large data sets to find the mean. And then trade when the stock diverges from the mean.
Each strategy or model has shelf life, so you need to keep researching and running new models.
Spreads are a good way of limiting down side while also capping upside. Volatility spreads are the most profitable ones and again short straddle makes money almost 95% of times but the 5% when they loose they will loose big. You need to have a certain limiting conditions and then hedge the spread with in this range. Usually you will make a little or loose a little. Sometimes you will hit a home run. It is easy to show this on a graph
5. so i kind of believe in hit and run and momentum play - what else can make you money where nothing is certain
I don�t trade momentum, swing or technical indicators. But there are profitable traders who do this.
6. buying when rsi2 is depressed and selling quickly - can be spread havent back tested it.
i backtest using stockfetcher. but u cant backtest options, you have to manually do it. itried some using think or swim platform.
Relative strength Index, McClellan RSI(2) and Oscillators can be an indicator of stock movement. Relating it to the option market is abstract but I think possible. But I feel the options will already be priced in for such potential movements in the underlying. A very good quant I know always says any new strategy will first manifest itself in the derivatives market before equity as the players there are much more sophisticated.
I am not sure which retail trading platform has good back testing, try options first with scottrade. I use Bloomberg which has loads of functions like OVME-GO where you can back test , simulate and see the volatility surface.
so i am trying to see if anybody else has any good strategy to share.
There are many good strategies but I have no idea on sophistication of each individual. For example right now you can sell credit default swaps on Goldman sachs medium senior secured notes and hedge it with delta units of binary in-the-money call options on the VIX. This will give you synthetic exposure to the notes with steady cash flow and the binaries are cheap. If goldman defaults the VIX will sky rocket giving you a handsome payout better than what you will have to pay on the senior secured notes because of high recovery rate if all the default climbs up to the senior tranche. Actually this would be equal to the end of the world in today�s market.
Or better yet just buy SPX and sit, the market is doing all the work for you.
The US natural gas market is in contango (I swear this is not jargon:o, there is no other term). So buy long dated/leap calls at the money now. In 2 years you will be so deep in the money you wont know what to do. But average retail investor cannot hedge this as he cannot trade spot.
So I guess my point is there are sophisticated ways to make money for which the average retail investor has no access to. If there is a simple way then it has already been exploited under the no-arbitrage clause of free markets.
If you have 2-5 year horizon. Go long the market and sit on it would be my best advice. If people want to meet and share ideas I am open to it. I live in NJ so NY/NJ is fine spot to meet.
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Macaca
12-17 02:24 PM
From Investing in America, Making Things Worse (http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119449088264586132.html) By Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) | Wall Street Journal, Nov 8, 2007
I'm startled to learn that The Wall Street Journal seriously believes that an investment in American students will make things worse for U.S. businesses ("The Grassley Visa Tax," editorial, Nov. 2).
Your editorial asserts that the number of foreign workers on H-1B visas is so minimal that we shouldn't care if Americans are in fact displaced. I challenge the Journal to wave their labor force figures in the face of one of the hi-tech workers who have had to train their own replacement who is an H-1B visa holder. That's a smack in the face to the American worker and hardly an issue to take lightly.
I am committed to an effort to include additional H-1B reforms and increase the visa supply along with an increased investment to educate Americans. But, I strongly disagree that the only solution is to increase our reliance on foreign workers by raising the annual cap. Reforms to the program must be a top priority. Big business cannot continue to ignore the home-grown American talent who should be getting at least a good portion of these jobs.
From page 9 of Driving jobs and Innovation Offshore (http://www.nfap.com/pdf/071206study.pdf) The impact of high-skill Immigration Restrictions on America, National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) Policy Brief, Dec 2007
The National Foundation for American Policy sent a letter to Senator Grassley�s office requesting a list of the names of �hi-tech workers who have had to train their own replacement who is an H-1B visa holder.�
To date we have not received such a list from Senator Grassley�s office.
I'm startled to learn that The Wall Street Journal seriously believes that an investment in American students will make things worse for U.S. businesses ("The Grassley Visa Tax," editorial, Nov. 2).
Your editorial asserts that the number of foreign workers on H-1B visas is so minimal that we shouldn't care if Americans are in fact displaced. I challenge the Journal to wave their labor force figures in the face of one of the hi-tech workers who have had to train their own replacement who is an H-1B visa holder. That's a smack in the face to the American worker and hardly an issue to take lightly.
I am committed to an effort to include additional H-1B reforms and increase the visa supply along with an increased investment to educate Americans. But, I strongly disagree that the only solution is to increase our reliance on foreign workers by raising the annual cap. Reforms to the program must be a top priority. Big business cannot continue to ignore the home-grown American talent who should be getting at least a good portion of these jobs.
From page 9 of Driving jobs and Innovation Offshore (http://www.nfap.com/pdf/071206study.pdf) The impact of high-skill Immigration Restrictions on America, National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) Policy Brief, Dec 2007
The National Foundation for American Policy sent a letter to Senator Grassley�s office requesting a list of the names of �hi-tech workers who have had to train their own replacement who is an H-1B visa holder.�
To date we have not received such a list from Senator Grassley�s office.
satyasaich
07-11 01:15 PM
As per my attorney (one of the top 3 in the country), there is already more than enough proof of rejection, which means an actual rejection package is NOT needed at all to proceed with Class action law suite
Example is revised visa bulletin, and that IS sufficient.
Infact, i tried to get some info, but all i got was "something favourable might happen ". That's a very generic statement and means nothing according to me.
It very well could be deliberate, no rejection notices mean, the lawsuit will be weak.
Example is revised visa bulletin, and that IS sufficient.
Infact, i tried to get some info, but all i got was "something favourable might happen ". That's a very generic statement and means nothing according to me.
It very well could be deliberate, no rejection notices mean, the lawsuit will be weak.
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p_kumar
11-10 08:55 PM
That is out of question. If GC is rejected, i wont have any strength to go through this all over again. Having H1B after GC denial is immaterial to me. :eek:
more...
h1techSlave
07-10 09:33 PM
As per our lawyers, right now USCIS is in the process of entering our applications in their system (for date of receipt and such). There was a memo from USCIS saying that they will be done with the job of data entry by August 1.
From August 1, we can expect either rejection or acceptance of the actual application. The hope is that a court/congressional intervention before August 1 will change the USCIS action of rejection into acceptance.
Flowers to Condi; any body?
Cheers,
h1techSlave
From August 1, we can expect either rejection or acceptance of the actual application. The hope is that a court/congressional intervention before August 1 will change the USCIS action of rejection into acceptance.
Flowers to Condi; any body?
Cheers,
h1techSlave
laborchic
12-09 05:33 PM
Bump Bump..
Folks dont let this thread die..
Moderators can we have link of this thread posted on the homepage????
Folks dont let this thread die..
Moderators can we have link of this thread posted on the homepage????
more...
gc_peshwa
04-14 06:51 PM
Lets help each others by spreading the word about this initiative to all directions...
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gjoe
02-01 06:52 AM
However I asked the same question again on hillaryclinton.com for the voice across america townhall
I think we should ask them something like "When it takes 7-10 yrs for a legal immigrant to get his green card, what would be your estimate for illegal immigrants to get their green card / citizenship when they are sent to the back of the line as per your plan? Don't you think that there are more serious issues with the immigration dept (USCIS) which is one of the causes for long waits legal immigrants face? If so do you have any plans of taking a first step to fix the agency (USCIS) problems before implementing CIR, which could break the agency because of the additional 13 million application from illegal immigrants?"
I think we should ask them something like "When it takes 7-10 yrs for a legal immigrant to get his green card, what would be your estimate for illegal immigrants to get their green card / citizenship when they are sent to the back of the line as per your plan? Don't you think that there are more serious issues with the immigration dept (USCIS) which is one of the causes for long waits legal immigrants face? If so do you have any plans of taking a first step to fix the agency (USCIS) problems before implementing CIR, which could break the agency because of the additional 13 million application from illegal immigrants?"
more...
fasterthanlight�
06-16 12:14 PM
http://s88179003.onlinehome.us/ipod2.jpg
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peacock
07-17 12:32 PM
Hi
I agree that recapturing lost no's from previous years will be the best possible solution.But to do that we need intervention from the congress and the President needs to sign a bill to recapture the lost no's.To accomplish this goal we need to keep up the momentum generated from this june bulletin fiasco and intensify our lobbying efforts in Washington.
Kudo's to the IV core for their strong campaign in championing our cause.
I agree that recapturing lost no's from previous years will be the best possible solution.But to do that we need intervention from the congress and the President needs to sign a bill to recapture the lost no's.To accomplish this goal we need to keep up the momentum generated from this june bulletin fiasco and intensify our lobbying efforts in Washington.
Kudo's to the IV core for their strong campaign in championing our cause.
more...
annsheila79
04-21 12:52 PM
hey are you Sheila Ann or Sheila Kijawani ? :D
Sent you a PM. please check :p.
Sent you a PM. please check :p.
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voldemar
01-30 01:23 PM
Does someone have the (official) link to this news that DOL has submitted this rule to OMB. I edited my previous posting, there is a link to proposed rule.
more...
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fromnaija
07-21 06:56 PM
For me the frustrating aspect is that my first son is in college. Arizona State University is forcing me to pay out-of-state fees and have stated that I could only pay in-state tuition after filing I-485! So the money I could have invested in business is going to college tuition. Another son is in senior class in high school and will be going to college next year. Yet another son will be going to college in 2008.
I have thought of going back to Nigeria but I'll like my sons to finish college here. So, I have decided to stay until I get GC. My wife and I are both studying for Masters (another big expense for us!).
We spend most of our time between studies, volunteering and other community activities.
Could others on this forum who have college-age kids tell me how they and their families are coping with expense of college tuition?
I have thought of going back to Nigeria but I'll like my sons to finish college here. So, I have decided to stay until I get GC. My wife and I are both studying for Masters (another big expense for us!).
We spend most of our time between studies, volunteering and other community activities.
Could others on this forum who have college-age kids tell me how they and their families are coping with expense of college tuition?
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garybanz
12-03 03:55 PM
Most of the people on Immigration Voice come here for legal advice regarding immigration, what if IV negotiates a good rate with 3-4 Immigration attorneys and recommends those attorneys to members? Attorneys would get business due to IV recommendation, IV will get referral fee ($100-$200) per referral and members will get discounted rates from good attorneys.
Do you think this can work?
Cheers.
Do you think this can work?
Cheers.
more...
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eb3_nepa
12-03 05:31 PM
How long do we July 2nd Filers have to wait before we can call ourselves "victims"?
I know some people have been waiting for years together hence my question.
I know some people have been waiting for years together hence my question.
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chaanakya
08-13 11:05 PM
I feel education should be rewarded (Every where). High skilled should get prefference.
chaanakya may be you should consider putting your words in soft intangiable worlds...
For those who care to read...the fact that I am suggesting that people should port their priority dates before that door closes shows that I believe that people who have played by the rules (ie actually put in the 5 yrs experience or find a job with EB2 requirements) should get preference !!
I call this the plight of EB2 india because as the rules are set up, in theory, if majority of EB3 ported priority dates, then yes, EB2 with later dates would truly get the short end of the stick.
Having said that, the backlash against people like SunnySurya is unfair. From his perspective, he is right and the law grants him the right to sue if he feels so.
THe problem in these forums is that any mature discussion is not possible because any dissenting voice is soon suppressed with ad hominem attacks such as the gentlemen who wanted to buy me tickets to india.
Seriously, how much more immature can we get?
Even reading this discussion, NOT ONE PERSON has attacked the argument on a legal basis. INsults are aplenty though.
chaanakya may be you should consider putting your words in soft intangiable worlds...
For those who care to read...the fact that I am suggesting that people should port their priority dates before that door closes shows that I believe that people who have played by the rules (ie actually put in the 5 yrs experience or find a job with EB2 requirements) should get preference !!
I call this the plight of EB2 india because as the rules are set up, in theory, if majority of EB3 ported priority dates, then yes, EB2 with later dates would truly get the short end of the stick.
Having said that, the backlash against people like SunnySurya is unfair. From his perspective, he is right and the law grants him the right to sue if he feels so.
THe problem in these forums is that any mature discussion is not possible because any dissenting voice is soon suppressed with ad hominem attacks such as the gentlemen who wanted to buy me tickets to india.
Seriously, how much more immature can we get?
Even reading this discussion, NOT ONE PERSON has attacked the argument on a legal basis. INsults are aplenty though.
more...
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go_gc_way
11-13 10:36 PM
Hello anurakt,
Thank for contributing again to IV. You and other members like yourself would be the reason for IVs success in changing the flawed green card system.
Thank you for encouraging other IV members for contributing. As you know, this is very important and more amongst us should encourage our fellow IV members to contribute. Often times it is evident that few IV members are struggling to keep a positive tone on the forums. As you may have experienced, it is easy to post few messages here and there. The message of some of these posts is to throw out ideas for others to implement. But in the end, the success of our community will depend on the contribution from kind members like you. Thank You.
Regards,
WaldenPond
Waldenpond, here is my $100 contribution. This is in addition to my previous several contributions and I am glad to contribute again.
Thank you and IV core team for your continued dedicated efforts and leadership. I wish all of us success at the end.
FRIENDS ON THE FORUM : Please give it a THOUGHT and CONTRIBUTE .. Your contribution as mentioned by waldenpond can make a DIFFERENCE at the end.
Thank for contributing again to IV. You and other members like yourself would be the reason for IVs success in changing the flawed green card system.
Thank you for encouraging other IV members for contributing. As you know, this is very important and more amongst us should encourage our fellow IV members to contribute. Often times it is evident that few IV members are struggling to keep a positive tone on the forums. As you may have experienced, it is easy to post few messages here and there. The message of some of these posts is to throw out ideas for others to implement. But in the end, the success of our community will depend on the contribution from kind members like you. Thank You.
Regards,
WaldenPond
Waldenpond, here is my $100 contribution. This is in addition to my previous several contributions and I am glad to contribute again.
Thank you and IV core team for your continued dedicated efforts and leadership. I wish all of us success at the end.
FRIENDS ON THE FORUM : Please give it a THOUGHT and CONTRIBUTE .. Your contribution as mentioned by waldenpond can make a DIFFERENCE at the end.
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kumarc123
01-09 04:46 PM
Make monthly monetary contribution for IV as a start.......
I wasn't the lucky July filer, I am sure their are others like me waiting.
DO a rally and I will be there with contributions, do something big, I am sure more like will join the cause. Not a free rider but at the same time don't like to be taken for a free ride!
Thanks for your smart comment, however it does not serve the purpose.
I wasn't the lucky July filer, I am sure their are others like me waiting.
DO a rally and I will be there with contributions, do something big, I am sure more like will join the cause. Not a free rider but at the same time don't like to be taken for a free ride!
Thanks for your smart comment, however it does not serve the purpose.
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invincibleasian
01-31 12:33 PM
1)all lc's irrelevant of when they were approved have a 45 day life after rule gets published. within 45 days the lc has to be used.
2)Since there is no more substitution all lcs not used by the orignal applicant are dead after 45 days.
3)all substituion applications which do not have approved i140 are also dead at the time the rule is published.
This is what i have inferred and i may be wrong! Anyway no more cutting ahead in the queue or sale of lcs also no use anymore for i140 revoking for the employer!! Cheers for this rule!
2)Since there is no more substitution all lcs not used by the orignal applicant are dead after 45 days.
3)all substituion applications which do not have approved i140 are also dead at the time the rule is published.
This is what i have inferred and i may be wrong! Anyway no more cutting ahead in the queue or sale of lcs also no use anymore for i140 revoking for the employer!! Cheers for this rule!
gk_2000
04-22 10:55 AM
Hey, Just wondering where is Mr. Moron these days ? Didnt see him for last two days? went off to exile with Ram and Sita ? :p
Why are members losing it these days?
Why are members losing it these days?
BharatPremi
12-13 10:06 PM
Information we want to publicize, and information that we should keep restricted to members.
jazz
That is already happening in state chapters. In my opinion IV still has a need to remain "grass root" organization. And as long as that is needed, "Recurring Contribution" would be more attractive tool. Once we set "Paid membership" concept it will instituionalize and in my opinion at this early stage it is not
advisable.
jazz
That is already happening in state chapters. In my opinion IV still has a need to remain "grass root" organization. And as long as that is needed, "Recurring Contribution" would be more attractive tool. Once we set "Paid membership" concept it will instituionalize and in my opinion at this early stage it is not
advisable.
